PEMODELAN DATA RADIOSONDE MENGGUNAKAN STACKING ENSEMBLE UNTUK KLASIFIKASI HUJAN

Muhammad Hermansyah
Ahmad Saikhu
Bilqis Amaliah


DOI: https://doi.org/10.29100/jipi.v10i2.7806

Abstract


Perubahan iklim telah meningkatkan frekuensi dan intensitas kejadian cuaca ekstrem di wilayah tropis seperti Indonesia, sehingga men-imbulkan tantangan dalam pemanfaatan data observasi meteorologi untuk mitigasi bencana hidrometeorologis. Data observasi permukaan sering kali kurang mampu merepresentasikan dinamika vertikal at-mosfer dalam analisis kejadian cuaca ekstrem, seperti hujan sedang hingga lebat. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model klasifikasi intensitas hujan berbasis data observasi udara atas dari radiosonde dengan pendekatan stacking ensemble, yang mengintegrasikan algorit-ma Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, dan SVM, serta menggunakan HistGradientBoosting sebagai meta-learner. Untuk mengatasi ketidakseimbangan kelas antara kondisi berawan-hujan ringan dan hujan sedang-lebat, diterapkan teknik Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE). Evaluasi performa dilakukan menggunakan metrik precision, recall, F1-score, dan kurva precision-recall. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa model stacking ensemble memberikan performa terbaik dengan nilai precision sebesar 0,9084, F1-score 0,8718, dan average precision untuk kelas hujan sedang-lebat sebesar 0,949, melampaui seluruh model individual. Temuan ini menegaskan keunggulan integrasi data atmosfer vertikal dan pendekatan multi-algorithm machine learning dalam mendeteksi hujan intensitas sedang hingga lebat secara lebih akurat. Model ini memiliki potensi tinggi untuk diimplementasikan dalam sistem peringatan dini cuaca ekstrem, khususnya di wilayah tropis dengan keterbatasan data observasi permukaan.

Keywords


data radiosonde; klasifikasi hujan; pembelajaran mesin; stacking ensemble

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